The Trump administration is framing the killing of cartel leader “El Mencho” as a major victory in the war on drugs. Decades of drug enforcement tells another story.
Within hours of El Mencho’s death, affiliates set fires to banks and storefronts and blocked major highways across roughly 20 Mexican states, demonstrating continued operational reach as authorities struggled to maintain peace. This rapid adaptation within the cartel reflects a familiar dynamic. When Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán was arrested, the Sinaloa Cartel reorganized and continued trafficking. When the Milenio Cartel’s leadership was dismantled, its remnants evolved into the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Each major enforcement “success” — marked by the elimination of cartel leadership — has been followed by organizational restructuring rather than collapse, with research linking leadership disruptions to an average 80% increase in homicides in the affected municipality over the next year.
