Average tax refunds are reportedly up 10% this year, but easing Americans’ distrust of how Uncle Sam spends the money it keeps is not disappearing anytime soon. According to 2025 polling from the Cato Institute, the average adult believes that 59 cents of every federal tax dollar is “wasted” — up from 38 cents in 1986. 

That’s why recent investigations to uncover Medicaid fraud in states ranging from Blue California to Red Florida are resonating with voters. When program spending on autism therapy, for example, is accelerating by hundreds of millions of dollars in certain states, something is up, and more rigorous oversight is clearly needed.