What the Kremlin fears more than Ukrainian drones

Major banks across Russia on Friday reported major service breakdowns. Their apps crashed, ATMs stopped working, and other capabilities collapsed. The outages caused major complications in everyday life and the economy: Public transport had to stop collecting fares, while some businesses switched to cash-only operations.

The culprit? Not Ukrainian drones or a major cyberattack — rather, the Russian government’s own attempt to block the use of virtual private networks, or VPNs.

The Kremlin has long been striving for greater control over the internet, and navigating an ever-tightening web of censorship has become a fact of life. However, the clumsiness and incompetence of this latest attempt shows how Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move may backfire. In trying to silence dissent, the state may instead provoke it.

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At the end of March, the Russian Ministry for Digital Development announced a new crackdown on VPNs, aimed at making them prohibitively expensive for users. On Thursday, the Ministry for Digital Development ordered internet platforms to start blocking VPN usage by April 15 or face sanctions. These measures would force internet providers to charge high rates for international data. Alternatively, they target tech firms that allow VPNs to operate, taking away valuable tax breaks or even threatening their employees with conscription into the military.

These measures build on previous efforts to discourage VPN usage. Roskomnadzor, Russia’s communications regulator, had restricted access to more than 400 VPNs by mid-January.

Rumors are also flying that Russia’s most popular messaging app, Telegram, will soon be fully blocked, escalating a crackdown launched last year.

The ban on Telegram and other similar apps coincides with a growing trend of mobile internet outages across Russia. Large areas of Russia were frequently subject to mobile internet blackouts, which have extended to major cities, including Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Though ostensibly aimed at inhibiting Ukrainian drone strikes, these outages serve the regime’s purpose of further cutting Russians off from the global internet. The blockages have caused rare public outcry, leading authorities to threatening criminal charges against anyone who participates.

The real story behind these bans is that the Kremlin is terrified of its own people. Moscow sees unfettered access to information as a threat to regime security.

This fear is not new but is certainly growing. Since massive protests in Moscow in 2012, Russia has expanded online censorship. Roskomnadzor initially tried to block Telegram in 2018 but ultimately reversed the ban two years later after it failed spectacularly because IP blocks could be evaded. In 2019 Putin signed the “sovereign internet” law, which required providers to install state-controlled systems, enabling real-time monitoring, filtering, and targeted blocking of internet traffic. Roskomnadzor began throttling access to Twitter in 2021 and accidentally also shut down the Kremlin’s own website.

After the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, Russia’s censorship campaign went into overdrive. It blocked Meta-owned Instagram and Facebook, labeling Meta as an “extremist” entity, and similarly banned a slew of Western and independent Russian media outlets. Moscow blocked WhatsApp and YouTube this year.

Meanwhile, Russian authorities have gradually ramped up their assault on Telegram despite outcries from constituencies across Russia, including officials and troops who use the app for war-related communications. Moscow began blocking calls on Telegram in August, claiming the app fosters criminal and terrorist activity. In February, Roskomnadzor began throttling Telegram, rendering it effectively unusable in Russia without a VPN. The next month, Russia’s Federal Anti-Monopoly Service announced it would ban advertising on Telegram by year’s end.

In place of Telegram and WhatsApp, the Kremlin has offered a state-controlled alternative called Max. Moscow has mandated that Max be automatically installed on phones and tablets since September, and some officials have floated the idea of requiring citizens to use the app for identification verification and other services related to their bank accounts.

Despite the heavy-handed state advertising, ordinary Russians are wary of Max. They worry about state surveillance, as the app lacks end-to-end encryption — seen as a deliberate choice to allow authorities to monitor messages. Users also widely complain that Max has poor functionality and is riddled with bugs. Although the app’s owner claims that more than 100 million Russians have downloaded Max, its number of daily active users likely pales in comparison to that of WhatsApp and Telegram. 

Moscow’s latest restrictions may prove far less effective than it hopes. After all, the Russian government has already tried and failed ban Telegram once before. Likewise, Western apps such as Instagram and WhatsApp remain popular in Russia despite official bans. That’s thanks chiefly to VPNs, which Russians have downloaded en masse since 2022.

Moscow is now trying to close that door, too. Yet history suggests that many Russians will continue to find workarounds. Even if it’s successful, the Kremlin may wind up fomenting the very unrest it seeks to prevent. Authorities have already had to step in to quash protests (admittedly small in scale) in over 40 cities over internet outages.  

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It is past time to call Putin’s bluff. Washington, for its part, should expand access to free VPN services and allow Russians to circumvent state restrictions and keep the flow of information alive.

The harder the Kremlin clamps down, the clearer the truth becomes: A government that fears speech is a government that fears its citizens.

Ivana Stradner is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

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