There is a view prevalent in the media and pundit universe that President Donald Trump is some kind of enigma. You never know what he is going to do or say next. While it is true that Trump operates on a level of unfiltered impulsivity rarely seen in politics, he is plenty calculating. Trump is acutely sensitive to public opinion polling, particularly with his base, which he protects zealously.
Throughout his relatively short political career, Trump has been driven by the polls. Whether in response to movement or exploiting voter grievances, Trump moves with the public. He does have his own set of cherished positions, but even in those cases, he tries to stay onside with the voters.
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Even the Iran conflict is strongly influenced by polling. Iran and its nuclear threat have been a consistent top security priority for the public. In its January poll, Harvard-Harris — a Trump-favorable pollster — found 76% of respondents considered Iran’s nuclear program a top foreign policy priority. YouGov, which is generally less favorable to Trump, had 59% or respondents agreeing Iran’s nuclear program was an “immediate” or “somewhat serious” threat.
RIG THE HEADLINES, SHIFT THE POLLS
And antipathy against Iran runs deep and consistent. YouGov has consistently found Americans consider Iran an “enemy” or “unfriendly.” In the aftermath of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear program in 2025, 78% had a negative view of Iran, including 58% who considered Iran an “enemy.” Not only is Iran more negatively viewed than Russia or China, but the percentage who consider Iran an enemy is 10 and 22 points higher, respectively.
The polling around the abduction of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro also would give Trump some encouragement. Prior to and immediately after the flawlessly executed operation, the public was mildly opposed to the action. However, nothing succeeds like success, and the public did come around with 59% approving just one month later. If Trump was confident of winning, those polling numbers were a clear “go” sign for the operation against Iran.
Firing Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi, as well as the pullback on some ICE activities, followed the polls as well. While both Noem and Bondi certainly earned their departures, fumbling their jobs badly, neither was popular. In the most recent poll from Cygnal, a GOP-oriented pollster, Noem had an abysmal 25% approval rating. Among Republicans, her approval rating was just 48%, while 25% disapproved. (With YouGov, it was 44% approve and 23% disapprove.) Any Trump cabinet member scoring under 50% approval with the president’s base is someone who can and should be cast aside easily.
Bondi does no better. YouGov polled her at 21% approve, 53% disapprove, with all voters. At 43% approve and 27% disapprove with Republican voters, Bondi achieved the incredible feat of being less popular than Noem. Trump’s first round of “you’re fired!” was easy.
The lower profile of ICE coincides with a slide in public approval of Trump on immigration. Throughout his second term, public approval for Trump on immigration has been consistently much higher than his overall approval. In the RCP averages, Trump was strongest on immigration through the end of 2025, with even a few unfavorable polling groups giving him positive numbers.
Those numbers changed with the Minnesota surge, with only Morning Consult, a Trump-favorable poll, giving the president positive marks. In its most recent poll, Harvard-Harris had the president 8 points underwater on immigration. In the wake of the negative polling, Trump unceremoniously ditched Noem and brought in Tom Homan to work with local officials to smooth things over.
Where Trump has struggled is on inflation. It’s a curious thing that populists, stretching back to the 19th century, have embraced easy-money, inflationary policies. That might have worked 100 years ago when periodic bust cycles ushered in severe deflation, but that’s not the case today, and the public positively hates inflation.
Inflation has been the No. 1 concern of the voters for the past four years, and not by a little. Inflation wrecked the Democrats’ chances in 2024, with former President Joe Biden’s approval sinking as concerns about inflation rose.
The April 6 YouGov poll asked voters what was more important: inflation or unemployment. While 46% copped out to “both,” among the rest, 41% opted for inflation, and a mere 5% picked unemployment. These numbers held across all demographics and political ideologies, with self-identified “MAGA voters” the highest at 50% for inflation and just 4% for unemployment.
That’s not surprising — unemployment is experienced by just a subset of the population, while inflation is pervasive. In other words, inflation is an “everybody” problem while unemployment is a “somebody” problem.
To be fair, the inflation rate has fallen considerably from its highs under Biden, and interest rates have edged down. But the worst thing you can do in politics is lecture the voters on what they should care about. Prices are still much higher, and the public is hypersensitive to the cost of living. Right or wrong, like it or not, Team Trump needs to put a full-court press on inflation.
TRUMP SLAMS ‘RIGGED’ POLLING DATA, CLAIMS ‘REAL’ APPROVAL IS OVER 60%
Trump has recognized this issue, but he has vacillated between deals and denial. Trump negotiated reductions in the cost of some prescription drugs and his campaign to reduce regulation should help. Trump has also admonished data center developers to build out their own power supply and not compete with consumers.
The problem is that these one-off efforts do not address the overall issue. Lower regulations take time to enact and work through the system. The Trump administration needs a comprehensive plan to lower prices and a public relations push to accompany it. The fate of Biden should be a cautionary tale, not a roadmap.
Keith Naughton is a U.S.-based journalist.
