The federal budget is on an unsustainable path. Annual deficits are close to $2 trillion, and the federal debt will reach 120% of GDP by 2036. These top-line numbers should make you worried, but even they don’t fully capture how broken the budget really is.
Budgets are more than just lists of spending and revenue. As the old adage goes (and a favorite saying of former President Joe Biden), show us your budget, and we will show you your values. What we spend money on and how we spend it says a lot about who we are. So, what does the federal budget say about America?
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First, we prioritize the elderly above all else. An analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model finds that we spent $2.7 trillion, or about 40% of the budget, on folks age 65 and older in fiscal 2025. This spending is driven mainly by Social Security and Medicare, the two largest programs in the federal budget. Meanwhile, we spent less than half that amount on working-age adults (ages 26–64) at $1.2 trillion, and only $449 billion on children and young adults. This means for every $1 we spent on children, we spent $6 on seniors.
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Keeping the elderly out of poverty is a noble goal, but we do far more than that. The average Social Security benefit is just over $2,000 per month, while the poverty threshold is $1,330 per month. And we have continued to make the programs more generous over the past decades, even though they face insolvency. For example, after adjusting for inflation, the average Social Security benefit today is 70% higher than it was in 1977.
Medicare benefits are also increasing as healthcare costs continue to grow, and these benefits are outpacing the dedicated taxes that support them. The average couple turning 65 in 2030 will receive over $600,000 more in benefits than they paid in taxes to support these programs over their lifetimes; by 2060, that figure jumps to nearly $1.2 million.
Our budget also says we are sloppy and unorganized. In a 2025 report, the Government Accountability Office identified 148 new ways the federal government could reduce duplication, fragmentation, and overlap across agencies that would save taxpayers billions of dollars. For example, there are at least 160 housing and rental assistance programs administered by 20 federal agencies. Eliminating duplication and overlap is something every voter should support. It would save money, improve our fiscal outlook, and make it easier for government officials to determine which programs actually deliver value to taxpayers.
Not only does the government waste significant resources on overlapping programs, but it also has a hard time making payments correctly. Last fiscal year, GAO reported that there were an estimated $186 billion in improper payments, about four-fifths of which were due to overpayments. And that doesn’t cover the full extent of federal spending — it only accounts for agencies that actually reported improper payments, something many agencies fail to even estimate.
We are also showing the world that we are a nation of rule-breakers who refuse to follow our own procedures. In the five decades that the current budget process has been in place, Congress has passed all its required appropriations measures on time only four times: 1977, 1989, 1995, and 1997. And those last three times have an asterisk since Congress was late in passing the budget blueprint that is supposed to precede the actual spending bills. Budgeting based on vibes and whims, as Congress does, is a recipe for disaster, and we are seeing that play out.
Finally, our budget says we are shortsighted and reckless. We are accumulating debt rapidly. Within a decade, 25% of all federal revenue will be used to pay interest, leaving only 75% to pay for defense, safety net programs, infrastructure, and everything else. Absent any changes, we will be forced to borrow even more money, further increasing our debt. The likelihood of getting caught in a debt spiral that leads to a fiscal crisis is increasing by the day.
We are playing with fire, but we don’t have to. There’s time to put the budget on a more sustainable path. It won’t be easy, and voters and Congress alike will have to make tough decisions, but it’s not impossible. Some relatively easy things, such as capping Social Security benefits at $100,000 for a couple or fixing Medicare Advantage to prevent insurers from overcharging, would go a long way.
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We should also take concrete steps to reduce our deficit from 6% of GDP to 3%, a more sustainable level.
America does a lot of good in the world. Other countries look to us for leadership. But we need a budget that reflects our true character. A budget that projects stability, reliability, and prudence. Right now, our budget is sending the wrong message about who we are.
Maya MacGuineas is the president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Adam A. Millsap, Ph.D., is a senior economist and program officer at Stand Together Trust.
