IN FOCUS: TRUMP’S IRAN DEAL MUST BE NOTHING LIKE OBAMA’S

Obama’s 2015 Iran nuclear deal in context

In 2013, the Iranian regime was facing extremely tough U.S. sanctions for its unrivaled belligerence toward the U.S. and its efforts to develop nuclear weapons, sanctions that had been spearheaded by members of Congress. This prompted the Obama administration to relax those sanctions by entering an interim agreement with Iran, the Joint Plan of Action, during which the two countries negotiated the JCPOA. Over the two years, the U.S. paid Iran either $11.9 billion or $19.9 billion for the privilege of negotiating. During this time, Iran continued its normal anti-U.S. behavior and funded its usual terrorist groups. 

On July 14, 2015, the JCPOA was finalized between Iran, the U.S., and other nations. Basically, under this deal, Iran agreed to constrain its nuclear program in return for more money from the West. Obama himself confirmed that the JCPOA would provide $150 billion in sanctions relief to Iran. This did not include another $1.7 billion that the U.S. simultaneously gave to Iran, supposedly to settle a judicial case, but also in exchange for four dual-national Americans held hostage in Iran.

It was estimated that the total amount of frozen funds and sanctions relief that Iran could have received if the JCPOA had been maintained over 10 years would have reached $700 billion. 

It is important to realize that, at the start of the negotiations, Iran had only $20 billion in a fully accessible foreign exchange reserve. The Iranian budget around then was $47 billion, and the military/terrorism budget was around $15 billion, with unofficially another roughly $15 billion going to its military/terrorism budget. 

Post-JCPOA, Iranian bad behavior was supercharged. Immediately after, the Iranians seized and humiliated American sailors. The new monies available to Iran were sent to its terrorist proxies, which continued their mayhem, put into its nuclear weapons program, or used to develop a ballistic missiles program.

In response to the continued Iranian aggression, the Obama administration continued to show meekness. Even Iranian cheating on the JCPOA didn’t stir them to action.

Trump administration’s 2026 Iran deal in context

The context for any deal that the Trump administration is working on in May of 2026 is very different.

On June 22, 2025, the U.S. conducted “Operation Midnight Hammer” against Iran. American B-2’s dropped 14 GBU-57A/B MOP “bunker buster” bombs and launched missiles at the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites. This attack substantially damaged the Iranian nuclear weapons development program, likely setting it back up to two years.

On Feb. 28, 2026, the U.S. initiated “Operation Epic Fury.” On the opening day, the U.S. and Israel assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The U.S. went to war for the following goals, according to historian Victor Davis Hanson: to 1) neutralize Iranian nuclear proliferation; 2) neutralize Iranian stockpiling and development of ballistic missiles and drones; 3) attrite the Iranian military so it is not capable of conducting aggression; 4) stop the Iranian subsidies to its terrorist proxies; and 5) make sure that Iran no longer attacks Americans and our allies. These goals have been “mostly met.” As the Foundation for Defense of Democracies has further detailed, the Iranian regime has suffered horrendous losses. The war has cost Iran “probably … $175 billion in damages.”

Later, the U.S. added “Operation Economic Fury”, i.e., new economic restrictions on the Iranian regime. This is further grinding down Iran, to the tune of a loss of roughly $435 million a day. As a result, “Iran’s currency is collapsing. Its ports are blockaded. Its economy is under siege. The rial is at historic lows. Inflation is surging. Unemployment is skyrocketing. Oil revenue is under severe pressure.”

In conclusion

Once again, it is unclear exactly what a Trump deal with Iran would entail.

Presumably, Iran will get some sanctions relief, although it may be “structured so Iran gets nothing until they deliver” on their promises. But it is likely that the amount of money Iran will receive will be much less than what it got in the JCPOA, and unlike then, Iran has already taken tremendous damage.

IRAN DEJA VU: US MAINTAINS IT INFLICTED MAXIMUM DAMAGE AS REPORTS SUGGEST OTHERWISE

So, if the JCPOA was the U.S. paying hundreds of billions of dollars to Iran to persuade it to cease behaving badly, which just encouraged it to behave badly some more, this deal may be giving it some minor economic incentives now to cease U.S. aggression only after a period a time in which the U.S. devastated the Iranian economy with hundreds of billions of dollars in damages, crushed the Iranian military, obliterated its ballistic missiles and drones, tremendously set back its nuclear weapons program, killed its main leader, his replacement, and possibly his son who is “officially” the new ayatollah, decimated the Revolutionary Guard, the Iranian military leadership, Iran’s police forces, and its nuclear scientists who were working for the regime. 

The JCPOA and a Trump-Iran deal should not be considered the same kind of deal. Rhodes saying otherwise is just more fiction he is creating about Iran, and we know he is an exceptional fiction writer. 

Adam Turner is the deputy director of government relations at Zionist Organization of America.