November’s congressional midterm elections are consequential to the future of America. Every two years, all 435 voting members of the House of Representatives and a portion of the U.S. Senate stand before voters for reelection. The familiar national narrative often centers on whether the House or Senate will hold or flip. Yet this election cycle is anything but typical, and the outcome may depend less on Washington political theater and more on the values, habits, and concerns rooted in rural and small-town America.

This cycle has brought widespread redistricting and new congressional maps in states including California, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and Texas, along with litigation leading to revised maps in Alabama and Utah. At the same time, there is an unusually large number of open congressional seats. Dozens of House incumbents are retiring, seeking higher office, or pursuing gubernatorial campaigns, while multiple senators are also stepping away from their seats. In total, more than 60 congressional seats will be filled by new members in the next Congress.