Some arguments that led to the redefinition of marriage in Obergefell v. Hodges in 2015 seemed to be common-sense, practical arguments. Supporters argued that legal recognition of marriage by same-sex couples would provide greater stability for same-sex couples, encourage marriage over cohabitation, and improve the well-being of sexual minorities. Many Americans found those arguments persuasive, even some of those who had reservations hoped that granting marriage licenses to same-sex couples would strengthen relationships and improve lives.

But now, 11 years later, we are no longer limited to predictions. We now have data. And the results raise an uncomfortable question: Did same-sex marriage achieve the outcomes its supporters promised?