Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan survived Russia’s best efforts to influence this month’s election against him. That allows Pashinyan to continue guiding his small South Caucasus nation’s Westward turn. Still, he lacks the decisive mandate needed to finalize peace with longtime foe Azerbaijan, and Moscow retains multiple levers of power to keep Yerevan trapped in Russia’s sphere of influence.

The vote was always more than a domestic contest. After Azerbaijan trounced Armenian forces in the 2020 and 2023 conflicts over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Pashinyan charted a sharp break with Armenia’s nominal ally, Russia. Yerevan instead turned toward the United States and Europe while seeking to make peace with Baku. This culminated in a historic August 2025 meeting at the White House, where the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders initialed a framework agreement aimed at ending decades of conflict.