Based on his brief foreign policy experience in Ukraine and Iran, Vice President JD Vance and his advisers have formulated the “Vance Doctrine,” which could soon be tested in the Indo-Pacific.

Vance appears to be reassessing U.S. trade and security agreements in the Indo-Pacific to fit the Vance Doctrine, which says that a small country must ultimately accept a negotiated framework crafted by its superpower patron, even if that framework leaves unresolved threats it considers existential. Vance hopes to end current conflicts and prevent new ones that could damage his chances of being elected president in 2028.