China has to date run two large-scale experiments in capturing global technology market share. Call them the Huawei model and the TikTok model. The contrast between them explains why Chinese AI labs — DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, GLM — are succeeding today, and why their winning streak may eventually hit the same impasse TikTok did.

By the mid-2010s, Huawei had built genuinely competitive wireless infrastructure, undercutting Ericsson and Nokia on price and often on performance, and it set out to become the default supplier of 5G worldwide. Then came the first Trump administration’s trade war — export controls, entity list designations, pressure on allies to exclude Huawei gear — and its global ambitions stalled.