Over three consecutive days this month, Romanian F-16s shot down three drones that had entered the country’s airspace — the first such engagements over Romanian territory. One appears to have been an Iranian-designed Shahed of the kind Russia uses against Ukraine. Bucharest summoned Moscow’s ambassador and acted under NATO’s air-policing command.
The episode answered the question Americans rightly ask of every ally: Will it act when the threat arrives? Romania did, using Romanian pilots and aircraft, without requiring a new American deployment. In May, a Romanian F-16 flying NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission had already destroyed a stray drone over Estonia.
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Washington is right to review its military posture in Europe. American taxpayers should not indefinitely carry a disproportionate share of the conventional defense of a prosperous continent, especially while the United States must deter China in the Indo-Pacific and retain the ability to respond in the Middle East. But reducing manpower need not mean surrendering strategic reach. A withdrawal that weakens American access would create openings Russia could test, and China could exploit.
The better model is a smaller footprint supported by allies that invest, offer reliable access, and multiply American power. Romania can perform that role on NATO’s southeastern edge, not as the center of America’s European posture, but as its Black Sea anchor.
Geography makes the case. Poland anchors the northeast, while Turkey controls the Turkish Straits. Romania connects the western Black Sea, Ukraine, the Balkans, and the Danube corridor with approaches to the Middle East. The Montreux Convention prevents non-Black Sea warships from remaining in the region for more than 21 days. A durable allied posture must therefore rely heavily on airfields, sensors, missile defense, drones, and pre-positioned equipment. Romania is building precisely that network.
Its record also matters. In a region where strategic ambiguity has often passed for sophistication, post-communist Romania chose the West. More than 32,000 Romanian troops served in Afghanistan. Twenty-seven were killed, and more than 200 were wounded. Romanian forces also served alongside Americans in Iraq and Kosovo. In March, Bucharest approved the temporary deployment of 400 to 500 U.S. personnel and supporting assets for operations connected to the Middle East.
Romania must still increase defense spending to meet NATO’s new 3.5% core defense goal by 2035. Yet its direction is clear. Its 2026 defense budget is about $11 billion — up 19% in one year, with 38% allocated to procurement. Bucharest has committed more than $10 billion to American systems, including 32 F-35s and Patriot air defense. This is burden-sharing that strengthens both deterrence and the American defense-industrial base.
Those capabilities plug into infrastructure that serves U.S. interests beyond Romania. Bucharest is financing a 2.5-billion-euro expansion of Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, designed to eventually support 10,000 troops. Romania also hosts Aegis Ashore, provides access at Câmpia Turzii, and operates the European F-16 Training Center at Fetești. Constanța and the Danube sustain routes toward Ukraine and Moldova.
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Washington and Bucharest should formalize this advantage through a Black Sea Air and Drone Defense Initiative. Romania would provide bases, sensors, logistics, trained personnel, and cofinancing. The U.S. would provide a predictable rotational presence, integrated intelligence, pre-positioned equipment, and industrial cooperation on lower-cost counter-drone interceptors. This would require neither a large permanent American garrison nor another blank check.
The bargain is straightforward: Europe carries more of the local burden. America preserves access, influence, and operational reach where Russia’s war, European energy security, and Middle Eastern instability meet. Romania has shown that it is prepared to invest and act. A leaner American posture should preserve and multiply that advantage.
Alexandru Coita is a former Romanian state secretary and adviser to the prime minister. A Johns Hopkins SAIS graduate, he is the founder and managing partner of GANES Strategy, a Bucharest-based geopolitical and sovereign-risk advisory. The views expressed are his own.
