President Donald Trump is not a leader who thinks in shades of grey. He has sorted the United States’s allies, by and large, into two categories: those worthy of diplomatic energy and close military coordination, and those who are not. The European nations, excepting Poland, fall into the “not” box. The gung-ho Asian tigers — Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia — get the green tick.
The division is partly explained by geography. While the Western Hemisphere is paramount under a rejuvenated Monroe Doctrine, Asia, where peer competitor China resides, is much more important than Europe. The Ukraine-Russia war may be an irritant, but Trump doesn’t see Vladimir Putin’s Russia as a major geopolitical threat. He wants the Europeans to handle their eastern border in any case. This will allow the U.S., should the Middle East permit it, to focus its might on containing an increasingly hegemonic China.
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The pivot to Asia to contain China, which is a work in progress, will hinge on Japan. The archipelagic nation serves as a physical barrier to possible Chinese aggression against Japan itself, more likely Taiwan and the Philippines, and other littoral states. Okinawa hosts tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers, adding to the deterrent. Once happy to shield behind the American security umbrella, Tokyo is now re-enforcing it. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi have bolstered defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product. Defense diplomacy is in overdrive, with Koizumi crisscrossing the Indo-Pacific to firm up partnerships with India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Australia, among others.
Eschewing historic antagonism, Tokyo is lightening the diplomatic load on the U.S. by proactively strengthening ties with South Korea. The revival of this trilateral alliance is crucial. On June 7, Japan and South Korea resumed joint bilateral maritime search-and-rescue drills for the first time in nine years. The U.S., for its part, leads both nations in the annual “Freedom Edge” exercise, combining air, land, sea, and cyber joint operations.
South Korea punches well above its weight militarily, ranking fifth globally in the Global Firepower Ranking. Seoul’s approximately 500,000 active-duty personnel may largely focus on the North Korean threat, but their in-field equipment is striking: The army alone maintains 3,270 self-propelled artillery units (third globally) and over 1,830 battle tanks. This capability, combined with the Korean Peninsula’s “tip of the spear” geography, makes South Korea key to any regional containment strategy.
Geopolitically reawakened by a rising China, Japan is quickly catching up with its smaller neighbor. The Ministry of Defense is investing heavily in unmanned systems, stand-off missiles, a long-range strike capability, and Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectiles. These capabilities deter aggression while signaling to Washington, Seoul, and both Southeast Asian and Pacific democracies that Japan is defending the regional order not just with intelligent diplomacy but with soldiers and steel, too.
The Takaichi administration grasped early that Trump appreciates action. With Iran sucking up so much American bandwidth and materiel, the U.S.’s Asian allies have been right to advance the democratic alliance on their own initiative. Leaders such as Takaichi, Bongbong Marcos of the Philippines, and Anthony Albanese of Australia understand that Trump will eventually refocus. When he does, they have considerable progress to demonstrate.
Japan’s sale of three upgraded Mogami-class frigates to Australia this year is a case in point. Deals with the Philippines and Indonesia for destroyers and surface-to-ship missiles are also advancing.
The objective of defense diplomacy is clear. China menaces Taiwan diplomatically and militarily. It has buzzed and threatened Japanese aircraft operating peacefully. Infringements on the exclusive economic zones of the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia are routine. And on July 6, a Chinese nuclear-power submarine fired a ballistic missile over 7,300 kilometers from the South China Sea into the South Pacific. This belligerence stokes region-wide fears of conflict. It also strengthens resolve.
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The networked approach of the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines is the right response to unilateral challenges to the regional status quo. Tokyo is serving as the broker and reinforcer of the established order, with the U.S. as the ultimate underwriter, whatever the distraction of Iran.
Trump may think his European partners are not worth more than a few days of summitry. He cannot think the same about the U.S.’s golden allies in Asia. These are nations that share core strategic interests with the U.S. and have become much more proactive in defending them. The American pivot to Asia needs to speed up, but in truth, the alliance of democracies has never been stronger.
Derek Grossman is a professor at the University of Southern California.
