China won’t get lucky twice: Why Trump’s Iran war may be Xi’s worst nightmare

Published August 11, 2026 7:00am ET



When the George W. Bush administration launched the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq more than two decades ago, China found itself in an extraordinarily favorable strategic position. While the United States devoted vast military, political, and financial resources to the Middle East, Beijing largely stayed out of the fray, quietly “concealing its strengths and biding its time” — concentrating on building its economic, technological, and military power.

A decade later, Washington extracted itself from those conflicts, only to find a radically different China — one that had transformed from a rising regional power into America’s principal global competitor.

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