ROME — For years, the European commentariat has warned that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would drag her country back toward dark traditions. The real test of that prophecy may now arrive in the form of a former army general whose politics make Meloni look like a liberal.
Roberto Vannacci’s new far-right party, National Future, has surged to around 7% in Italian opinion polls, establishing itself as the fifth-largest force in the country just months after the former general founded it. That followed his split from Matteo Salvini’s League. A survey published last week placed the party at 4.6%, snapping at the heels of the League at 5.8%. According to Politico’s Poll of Polls, National Future has since overtaken Salvini’s party outright and is gaining on Forza Italia, the other junior partner in Meloni’s coalition. With an election expected as early as next spring, Vannacci’s ascent is reshaping the political landscape.
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When Meloni won the 2022 election, critics warned that a party rooted in Italy’s postfascist tradition would turn Rome against Brussels, undermine NATO, and disrupt the trans-Atlantic alliance. That did not happen. Meloni remained combative on immigration and culture, but in foreign policy, she transformed Brothers of Italy from a protest movement into a credible, traditional conservative governing party. She backed Ukraine, maintained Italy’s place in NATO, and cultivated working relationships in Brussels and Washington.
Vannacci, 57, represents a more dangerous proposition — not only is his domestic rhetoric harsher, but also his foreign policy would accommodate the Russian fascism now waging a war of conquest in Europe.
“Il Generale,” as he is often dubbed, opposes continued military assistance to Ukraine, rejects Western sanctions on Russia, and advocates renewed political and energy ties with Moscow. A former Italian military attache in Russia, he presents this policy as independence from Washington. His slogan, “Italy is not for sale,” accompanied his public refusal to attend the U.S. Embassy’s July 4 reception, although he also indicated that he did not believe he had been invited. He has said Italy should work with the United States only when the two countries’ interests converge. Taken together, those positions would mark a clear departure from Meloni’s policy of helping Ukraine, maintaining pressure on Moscow, and treating the U.S. as Italy’s key security ally.
Along with foreign policy, Vannacci is offering Italian voters a more radical alternative, particularly on immigration. Meloni entered office promising a naval blockade to prevent illegal arrivals across the Mediterranean. That proposal was never implemented, but her government established centers in Albania to process asylum applications outside Italy. The project encountered repeated legal challenges.
In response to the rising electoral challenge, Meloni has also tried to harden her position. She has responded to Spain’s Ceuta migration crisis by introducing passport control for those arriving from Spain, citing security concerns and Madrid’s failure to regulate illegal migration. Spain responded with checks on Italian travelers.
Whether that will help Meloni deflect the new challenger remains unknown. Vannacci argues that Meloni has not gone far enough. He is campaigning for “remigration,” a poorly defined plan to encourage migrants to return to their countries of origin, together with mass deportations, tougher policing, and a more assertive defense of Italian identity.
Vannacci first gained national prominence through his 2023 book The World Upside Down, in which he attacked what he called the “international gay lobby.” The controversy led to his removal from a military post and an 11-month suspension from the army. He has since continued to campaign against expanding LGBT rights, presenting same-sex marriage and adoption by gay couples as threats to the traditional family. Vannacci also pushes ethnonationalist views. He famously sparked a political firestorm by declaring that black citizens, such as Italian volleyball player Paola Egonu, do not represent true “Italian-ness.”
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Meloni has so far resisted committing to an alliance with Vannacci, saying that “politics is not arithmetic” and arguing that his opposition to her government places him outside the mainstream Right. His rise nevertheless threatens the coalition discipline that has made Meloni’s government the second-longest-serving administration in the Italian Republic’s nearly 80-year history.
Excluding him could split the conservative vote, but admitting him would further strain the balance among Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia. Either path risks undoing the unusual political stability that has become one of Meloni’s principal achievements.
