American interests in the Gulf region, including advancing an accommodation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, have been undermined by the present quagmire. The Saudi priorities include protecting its infrastructure and addressing the danger posed by an Iranian nuclear weapon. The latter helps explain the kingdom’s pursuit of a nuclear program, including fuel reprocessing and enrichment, as a potential route to its own weapon. While China can probably do little to address the kingdom’s present security concerns, it looms large over Saudi nuclear ambitions.

In a recent piece, I explained why China would have been a significant beneficiary of the now-dead U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Unfortunately, the fallout with Saudi Arabia over the nuclear deal creates yet another opportunity for Beijing to expand its influence — this time by supplying nuclear technology to the kingdom if there is no deal with the United States.

First, some background on the Saudi power sector. About 65% of Saudi power comes from natural gas, with most of the balance from oil. The kingdom’s Vision 2030 initiative calls for virtually all the oil firing to be replaced by natural gas and renewables by 2030. So, any post-2030 nuclear power would displace natural gas, which could be exported as LNG or petrochemicals. However, to do this, the kingdom would need about 35 GW of nuclear generation, which is over five times the capacity installed by the United Arab Emirates under its Barakah project, which took 15 years and roughly $30 billion. While the Saudis have time and money, it appears that nuclear power would be far more costly than the gas energy it would replace.