Three recent major geopolitical confrontations teach a consistent lesson: overwhelming military power alone cannot produce the desired political outcome. Ukraine, Venezuela, and Iran differ vastly in culture, geography, and strategy, but together they illustrate an enduring rule of statecraft: If you intend to force fundamental change on an adversary, you must know how to engage it from both without and within.

Russian President Vladimir Putin learned the first half of this lesson the hard way. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow anticipated a swift collapse, but that didn’t happen. Instead, Putin badly miscalculated on two fronts: