The Trump administration believes that by placing increasing pressure on Iran’s oil sector, it will enhance its leverage over Tehran. Since the ceasefire talks have come to a standstill, Washington states that it can continue its naval blockade indefinitely, thus worsening the economic situation of the Iranian regime. However, a decrease in oil revenues does not automatically weaken an authoritarian regime.

Numerous authoritarian regimes, including Azerbaijan, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea, have experienced falling oil revenues for decades and remain in power today. From a political point of view, what matters is not merely how much oil revenue an authoritarian government loses, but how dependent the institutions that maintain its power are on that revenue.