Every nation has problems. That much is banal. What is not banal is the nature of those problems — and that distinction is the real dividing line. Some problems are structural, sitting at the foundation of a system. Others are more like buildup: real, visible, sometimes ugly, but sitting on top of a foundation that is basically sound.

America’s problems, and the problems of its principal rivals — China, Russia, and Iran — belong to different categories entirely. Confusing the two is the surest way to misdiagnose the patient and to misjudge who actually sustains a long contest.