The Estonian city of Narva sits at the eastern edge of NATO, across a narrow river from Russia. For years, the city has served as the go-to scenario for anyone imagining how Moscow might test NATO’s Article 5 promise. Right now, though, the Russian side of the border is quiet because everything Moscow can field is in Ukraine.

“I don’t believe that Narva is next,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in an interview with me this week. “We see that the other side of the border is pretty empty.”