Almost every signal from Washington says the same thing: nothing big happens in Iran before the midterm elections.

In late September, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump had rejected Tehran’s seven-day ceasefire plan and told aides he expects to resume bombing after the Nov. 3 vote. At the United Nations, he said he expected a deal after the midterm elections; Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, would prefer one before. Both capitals read the same calendar. On Sept. 29, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps even read out a “letter to the American people.”