A column made the rounds this month arguing that President Donald Trump’s remaining supporters stay loyal chiefly out of racial grievance and fear of losing majority status, reaching at one point for a comparison to the kind of allegiance an authoritarian strongman commands. That is a serious charge, and it deserves a serious check against the data.

Start with the number everyone agrees on. By September 2026, national approval sits at roughly 38% approve to 59% disapprove, one of the weakest standings of any American president at this point in a term. A 43-day government shutdown last fall, the longest in the country’s history, hurt him further. A February war with Iran still ongoing pushed several polls into the low 30s.