Democratic takeover of Senate in 2016 possible but not a slam dunk

Even as Republicans are about to regain a majority in the Senate after eight years in the minority, the conventional wisdom around Washington is that Democrats are likely to win back that majority again in 2016. That’s certainly possible, but it’s short of a slam dunk.

Superficially, the field of Senate seats up in 2016 looks as unfavorable for Republicans and the field of Senate seats up this year looked for Democrats. Of the 36 seats up in 2014, Democrats were defending 21, including seven in states carried by Mitt Romney. Of the 34 seats currently up in 2016, Republicans will be defending even more, 24, including seven in states Barack Obama carried in 2012.