Venezuela’s oil production figures have become something of an obsession for U.S. policymakers. This is because Washington’s guiding assumption is that the loyalty of Venezuela’s military and top regime officials will evaporate in the face of domestic and international pressure once Nicolás Maduro’s coffers can no longer support the steep cost of their allegiance.

Yet the Trump administration risks diminishing returns if it does not shift the focus of U.S. sanctions to the real throttle on Venezuela’s oil output — specifically, away from oil producing companies and toward the shipping industry, stranding Maduro’s oil onshore and forcing Venezuela to shut in wells for lack of oil storage facilities.