Earlier this year, it looked certain that California would throw itself further down the hole of identity politics, reinstituting affirmative action in university admissions and government hiring. Now, polls are showing that’s not as clear as it seems, and progressive activists seem worried.

California’s Proposition 16 would reinstate racial- and gender-based quotas in the state, allowing universities and government agencies to make admission and hiring decisions based on those immutable characteristics. After a similar 2014 effort went down in flames, a 2020 push off the back of George Floyd’s death in Minnesota was thought to be a sure thing. Yet, polls show that Proposition 16 is in danger of failing in the most progressive state in the country. The Public Policy Institute of California found that it was underwater by 13 points in October, with 12% of voters undecided.