President Obama bashed Mitt Romney by name this week, in a sign that the presidential race is finally in general election mode. Likewise, as voters begin settling down-ticket primary contests, the race for control of Congress is finally taking shape. The Senate is only four seats away from Republican control, and Democrats are already spending millions to preserve their party’s seats. Pundits who track elections hunt for the closest, hardest-fought contests — those with the most red flags — to form their judgments.

John Feehery, spokesman to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, said he looks for those flags by studying a member’s voting behavior. “You can always tell that a politician is in trouble on the big votes when he only wants to talk about the small ones,” said Feehery. “Between the 10 or 20 big votes that will really impact people’s lives — like Obamacare, cap and trade, or the Obama stimulus package — there are hundreds of pointless symbolic votes designed to score partisan points for the next election.”