Ask a Republican which single 2006 political race is most important to win, and you’ll probably hear a couple of different answers.
Conservative hearts will break if one of their golden boys, two-term senator Rick Santorum, doesn’t come from behind in Pennsylvania. Party supporters who are tired of casual and knee-jerk accusations of racism will rejoice if voters elect African-American Republicans Ohio gubernatorial candidate Ken Blackwell, Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann, or Maryland Senate candidate Michael Steele. The party would hate to lose very winnable Senate races in Tennessee, Minnesota, Missouri or Montana.
But a strong case can be made that the Republican official whose reelection matters the most to the party’s future … is California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
That may seem surprising — and not merely because a Republican state senator recently charged, “Our governor cares about one thing only, and that’s Arnold Schwarzenegger.” The lawmaker, Abel Maldonado, stuck his neck out to support the governor’s minimum wage initiative, and subsequently lost a primary for state controller when Schwarzenegger refused to endorse him.
There’s no denying that Arnold’s appearances in the national political spotlight come and go, and he’s far from a down-the-line conservative on most issues. Last year, Arnold chose not to attend a Bush fundraiser in his state; in April of this year, when Bush again visited California, their public joint appearance was noted for its rarity. Compared to other GOP stars like Sen. John McCain or former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arnold rarely appears on the campaign trail to help out other Republicans.
Right now, Arnold is favoredfor re-election, but the race is close. A Rasmussen Reports poll put his Democratic challenger, Phil Angelides, ahead by 46 percent to 44 percent; a poll a few days earlier by San Jose State University’s Survey and Policy Research Institute put the governor up, 44 percent to 37 percent.
So why should Republicans outside California hope that the Governator gets re-elected to his first full term?
First, Arnold has been a powerful and persuasive voice on the immigration issue, taking some tough stands. Yet it’s hard for his opponents to label him xenophobic; the man is an immigrant and his success story from thickly-accented bodybuilder to movie star to political leader is the embodiment of the American dream. He has the authority to make the argument that unrestricted illegal immigration and discussion of amnesty is fundamentally unfair to everyone who came to this country legally.
He’s also one of very few Republicans who give the party some star power. Among GOP governors, Jeb Bush is term-limited and retiring; Mitt Romney is preparing a presidential campaign. The Republican bench is full of solid lawmakers, but few folks who can attract the attention of the politically non-aligned.
After Arnold, the next-best-well-known Republican governor might be Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who earned some fame for losing 110 pounds after a diabetes diagnosis.
When Republicans argue that their party is a “big tent” with room for ideological diversity, Arnold is Exhibit A. His voice within the party says to many abortion rights, gay rights, or non-religious voters uncomfortable with the Democrats that they, too, can find a home in the GOP.
Finally, while it may frustrate Republicans that he uses his gifts of charisma so rarely, Schwarzenegger might be party’s most effective salesman. After his convention address, Slate’s William Saletan wrote that Arnold gave “the best speech I’ve seen at either of this year’s conventions. I bet he persuaded a lot of people who share some Republican attitudes but feel uncomfortable with the party’s hard core — people like me — to think seriously about voting for President Bush.” When Schwarzenegger made an appearance with Bush on the campaign trail in Ohio four days before Election Day 2004, he “pumped up” one of the most successful rallies of Bush’s campaign, in a state Bush could not afford to lose.
Schwarzenegger embodies certain attributes that Republicans like to see in themselves — strong, manly, tough and capable of facing down tough challenges with determination and a wisecrack. A defeat would put Arnold on the sidelines; he would be proven a political one-hit wonder who only came to power because of his predecessor’s mistakes and the quirks of the 2003 recall.
But if Arnold wins, the nation will almost certainly see him again in 2008 — most likely with another convention address and another campaign appearance with the Republican nominee.
In other words, with a victory … he’ll be back.
Jim Geraghty, a contributing editor at National Review and member of The Examiner’s Blog Board of Contributors, is author of “Voting to Kill: How 9/11 Launched the Era of Republican Leadership,” to be published by Simon & Schuster this September. He blogs at TKS.nationalreview.com.
