Russia is preparing its quadrennial Zapad 2021 military exercises along NATO’s eastern borders. The exercise is focused on potential armed conflicts with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

This extensive military drill in September will also involve troops from Belarus, one of Russia’s few remaining partners. Zapad 2021 is intended to demonstrate Russia’s military readiness and to simulate a clash with a neighboring state in which Moscow prevails. But with this year’s exercises being conducted in the midst of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the social turmoil in Belarus, tensions are increased. Especially notable is the impact on the historic rivalry between Poland and Russia over the states that lie between them.