It has been 2020 for nearly two days now, and Elizabeth Warren’s campaign has issued not one peep about her final quarter of the year’s fundraising. Bernie Sanders has boasted of his record-breaking $34.5 million haul, Pete Buttigieg nearly matched his own excellent third quarter with $24.7 million, and Joe Biden improved to an impressive $22.7 million. But Warren still hasn’t announced her totals. As the hours go on, it’s increasingly likely that they reveal a campaign on the wane.

After a precipitous fall in her polling numbers, Warren’s national polling has plateaued at about 15% of the primary vote. In a still-crowded primary where states issue their delegates proportionally rather than in the winner-take-all manner of GOP contests, that means Warren still has a real shot at the Democratic nomination. But every piece of evidence about her fundraising indicates that it isn’t a great shot. She is betting everything on a strong showing in Iowa to revive whatever perception remains that she’s electable. Otherwise, her campaign is toast.