In their attempt to shoot down Israeli aircraft on Monday night, Syrian air defense units ended up bringing down a Russian military transport Il-20 aircraft instead. Although the Russian defense ministry has reacted with outrage toward Israel, Russian president Vladimir Putin has taken a softer tone.
If that sounds like a surprising Putin reaction, it shouldn’t be. Instead, it reflects Putin’s understanding that this incident – at every level – had far more to do with his friend Bashar Assad than it did with the Israeli government.
Recommended Stories
First off, Assad’s air defense forces behaved like idiots. According to the Israeli defense ministry, its jets were not within Syrian airspace when the Russian aircraft was brought down. That strongly suggests the Syrians were doing what they normally do in air defense – firing randomly out into the dark night sky, trying to put on a show rather than actually hit anything.
The Russians know very well that the Syrians do this, so whoever authorized the transport flight is a complete idiot. After all, the moment that blaring radar signature popped up on the Syrian targeting screen, the Syrians thought that they had a once in a lifetime opportunity to actually score a win. A well-trained air defense unit might have paused for a moment at the far-larger radar signature an Il-20 gives off compared to an Israeli F-15 or F-16. But not the Syrians.
Putin also knows that the very reason the Israelis are so actively targeting Assad, Iranian, and Lebanese Hezbollah forces in Syria is because he, Putin, has not been able to restrain those forces. Israel is on a strategic mission to deny Iranian missile teams access to southern Syria and to prevent those forces from establishing a stronghold on Assad’s soil. Yet to counter that threat, Israel only has its intelligence and air forces. Putin knows this and he knows explictly that the Israelis will do whatever is necessary to achieve their objectives. In that sense, he knows that unless he is willing to take action against Assad, Iran, and Hezbollah, in order to address Israeli concerns, he will have to put up with Israeli air strikes. And putting up with those strikes means accidents such as this one are going to happen.
Ultimately, Putin is a realist. He’s not happy about what has just happened, but he knows that he has no real option other than to accept it and move on. Barring his taking action against Iran and company – which may be coming – the Russian leader’s only alternative is a military showdown with Israel. And in the local theater of operations, at least, that is not a showdown Putin can win.
