U.S.-Turkey relations are now so poor that the longstanding alliance is in danger.
Consider the new U.S. tariffs targeting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economy that were introduced on Friday.
I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 10, 2018
While that assessment of Turkey’s currency weakness is accurate — $1 USD is now worth twice as many Turkish liras as was the case just one year ago — Trump is playing a risky game by rubbing Erdogan’s face in his economic difficulties. After all, the Turkish leader is an avowed Islamic nationalist-populist of questionable mental state. Trump might think that the current deterioration relations won’t effect the broader contours of the U.S.-Turkish alliance, but that assumption is risky.
Indeed, as Joel Gehrke reports, Erdogan has already responded to Trump’s escalation with his own words of rebuke. Erdogan’s interest in stronger relations with Russia to offset U.S. relations will be of particular pleasure to Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader senses that he can suck Turkey out of its U.S.-aligned NATO orbit and thus damage the alliance’s southern flank. Putin also wants Erdogan’s acquiescence to his looming operation to kill-off the last remaining redoubt of the Syrian rebellion. Finally, Putin wants to consolidate Erdogan’s support towards making Russia the new master of international politics in the Middle East.
In turn, while Erdogan’s recent actions required U.S. pushback, Trump must be prudent. Turkey continues to provide critical territorial access that supports U.S. military efforts across the Middle East. And by challenging Erdogan’s ego by insulting his economic difficulties, Trump risks the Turkish leader’s overreaction and escalating this spat into a crisis. This risk is even more pronounced in that Erdogan’s current government rests on the support of a Turkish ultra-nationalist party, the MHP. That matters because the MHP hates America, currently loves Putin, and is always keen to see America’s bloody nose. As you read this article, MHP leaders will be pressuring Erdogan to strike back against U.S. interests.
Trump should call Erdogan and explain that his new tariffs have two specific objectives: The pursuit of a trading relationship more balanced to free trade and fair competition, and second, the release of Pastor Andrew Brunson and greater U.S.-Turkish cooperation against Russia.
Even if Erdogan rejects these concerns, he will recognize that Trump does not seek a crisis. The balance of pressure and dialogue here is a crucial one for Trump to master. It will be in no one’s interest if the president gets that calculation wrong.
