With President Obama‘s decision to hold back on “using his pen” and granting at least temporary legal status from millions of Latinos living illegally in the United States, the famed “Obama touch” may now have extended all its benefits to the Democratic Party that had previously been reserved for Israel, Ukraine, Iraq, and Libya. The center-right base is already more energized by far as November approaches and now the president has — for at least the third time — failed to deliver for a core constituency a benefit within his power to deliver. Thus did his political advisors again serve him poorly.

Here is the electoral scorecard as the sprint to the finish begins. Sixteen federal and state races matter in the United States more than any others at this point because they are the most competitive, and it is hard to see how the president’s most recent decision helps most of the Democrats in most of the races.