At the Republican National Convention, I asked various people what their best guess of the percentage of the national popular vote Donald Trumo would get in November 2016. I reported on the results here and here and here and here. Now at the Democratic National Convention, I’ve been asking Democrats their best guess of Hillary Clinton’s percentage of the national popular vote in November.
Of course their answers must be taken in perspective. Few partisans are willing to be quoted as saying their candidate is going to lose. Moreover, there have been plenty of surprises in this campaign and there may well be more, and so as one who predicted the election of President Romney, I think we should go easy on people who make predictions that don’t pan out.
I emphasized I was asking for “best guesses.” After the two conventions, I expect to re-examine the results and see what conclusions I can draw about Republicans’ and Democrats’ perspective on the election.
Brad Sherman, California congressman, predicts 49 percent for Clinton, 47 percent for Trump, with Clinton winning in the electoral college. He says she could get 65 percent in his district, which includes much of the San Fernando Valley, with Mexican and other immigrants in the flats and many Jews in the mountains rising south of Ventura Boulevard in Sherman Oaks and Encino.
He says “there’s high enthusiasm” in his district, but as in 2012, total California turnout could decline because “a lot of people know California is in the bag.”
Juliet Hurwitz, Detroit civil rights lawyer and left-leaning supporter of Bernie Sanders. She lives in the high income neighborhood Palmer Woods in Detroit, but says she disapproves of the private security firm the residents’ associates hires; people in affluent neighborhoods should depend on the same policing as people in poor neighborhoods. Her guess: “If the American people wake up, 52 or 53 percent for Hillary Clinton.”
Mitch Crane, Sussex County, Del., Democratic Chairman. 52 percent. Won’t carry Sussex County because of “idiot Democrats” voting for Trump, but will carry Kent County narrowly and win big in New Castle County.
Tom O’Neill, former lieutenantgovernor of Massachusetts and son of Speaker Tip O’Neill, guesses “49 percent.” Who wins? “I’m not sure.”
Rep. Jerry McNerney, 9th district of California, including some of the East Bay area and going into the Central Valley, guesses 52-53 percent, depending on turnout.
Paul Costello, longtime Democratic operative in Ohio who’s been attending Democratic national conventions since 1976. “I think Hillary will get 52 percent. I think the Obama coalition now becomes the Clinton coalition.
Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York, says firmly, “54 percent,” as he moves determinedly off the floor.
Ed Rendell, former mayor of Philadelphia, governor of Pennsylvania and Democratic National Chairman, guesses Clinton will win 47-52 percent. Will she carry Pennsylvania and will she have trouble in western Pennsylvania?
“For every vote we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will gain votes from Republicans in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Harrisburg and Pittsburgh,” he says. “The Harrisburg suburbs are really a lot like the Philadelphia suburbs,” he adds as he plunges good-naturedly into a conversation with someone else.
