Over the next five to 15 years, Russian President Vladimir Putin will pose an increasing threat in the fields of nuclear strike and long-range missile capabilities.

That’s the key takeaway from Putin’s speech on Thursday, in which the Russian leader pledged to counter U.S. military power at the highest end of capability. While Putin was partly motivated by buffering domestic support with nationalistic messaging (an election is coming up in two weeks), he also gave us insight into his tactical and strategic thinking.