A few observations from what you have to think — hope? pray? — will be the final Republican presidential debate for lower-polling candidates.
Carly Fiorina showcased both her skills and limitations. I thought Fiorina would really shine in a debate with Mike Hucakbee and Rick Santorum, especially once Rand Paul announced he was skipping the event. And she certainly was the most polished, had the best lines and got the most sustained applause.
But the three-candidate debate also showcased the degree to which she depends on these kinds of lines. There are a lot of zingers against Hillary Clinton — and this time, Bill — and she kept saying it was time to take America back, a popular rallying from the party out of power. There just isn’t a lot of movement beyond those set pieces or connective tissues putting it all together. She was the best debater on the stage, but she didn’t replicate the magic of her first undecard performance.
That may seem like an unfair criticism in a race dominated by Donald Trump, who has less policy knowledge and has relied exclusively on jokes, insults and talking points. Trump has neverthless demonstrated he can connect with voters on a visceral level. Fiorina and her supporters hate insinuations that she’s running for vice president, but that’s what “I actually love spending time with my husband” felt like.
Rand Paul was probably right to skip. Two of Paul’s rivals weighed in on the Kentucky senator’s decision to bypass the event. Trump said he could understand a sitting senator who was once considered a possible presidential nominee deciding not to show up. Chris Christie said you should never turn down a platform to sell your presidential campaign. Like Fiorina, he proved it with an undercard performance that helped him regain his spot on the main stage.
This debate didn’t have the feel of the one that earned Fiorina and Christie promotions. Yes, Paul would have had more opportunity to speak with just four candidates on the stage. But the debate was largely a contest of Obama jokes. Paul’s libertarian message, now the primary reason he is running, would have been out of place. Paul, who is running fifth in the most respected poll of Iowa, arguably got more media attention for not attending than he would have gotten by being there.
If 80 percent of life is just showing up, this might have been the other 20 percent.
Time has passed Santorum and Huckabee by. Santorum is the defending champion in Iowa. Huckabee won the caucuses four years before. Both of them were social conservative superstars from the 1990s through 2012 and remain passionate, and in Huckabee’s case folksy, advocates for their viewpoints.
Neither of them has a chance. Even their best applause lines are unlikely to move the needle.
Three candidates make for a good debate. Even if the undercard was a nonevent, it did show how productive a three-way debate between a trio of candidates who could realistically win the Republican nomination could be.
We’re not at that point yet. There will be seven candidates on the main stage, each of them with a decent shot of finishing in the top three in either Iowa or New Hampshire. But unless Christie, Jeb Bush or John Kasich get a ticket out of New Hampshire or Ben Carson is able to get his Iowa campaign back on track, we do look like we are heading toward a three-way race between Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.
