The surprise upset victory of congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over Democratic leader Joe Crowley has sparked a fresh round of speculation about who is or is not energized and ready to vote in the lead-up to the 2018 elections. While turnout in the Democratic primary for New York’s 14th Congressional District was still fairly low at less than 12 percent of registered Democrats, the race nonetheless showed that, in at least this case, victory could be assembled out of “drop-off” voters who tend not to participate in much of anything besides big presidential year general elections.

Democrats will often note that their voters are fired up, ready to turn out, and highly energized ahead of the midterms. They will point, for instance, to things like high turnout in Democratic primaries or Democrats telling pollsters that they are fired up. Republicans, meanwhile, hope that progressive overreach or the fight over the Supreme Court vacancy created by the retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy will remind their base of the stakes involved in potentially losing control of Congress and ensure even Republicans who are unenthused with Trump will still turn out.