It was back in 2002 that Ruy Teixeira and John Judis first wrote of an “emerging Democratic majority,” in which a coalition of non-whites, women, the young and professionals would keep Democrats in power for an indefinite period. Since then, this theory has had its ups and downs.

But projecting the behavior of demographic blocs into the future can often be tricky, as women and the young have been known to change horses, and ethnic groups do not stay the same. Traditionally, they begin as immigrants who are poor, who sometimes face prejudice, and may feel in need of state protection and subsidies, and change over time into entrepreneurs and investors, as they assimilate, as prejudice lessens, and as the laws of selection play out.