The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted that it is sometimes appropriate and legitimate for governors or other officials to control a public health emergency by restricting human activity. But government officials are people, and rational people respond to incentives. Incentives are affected by that which is seen and that which is not seen.

Most governors have ordered various forms of lockdowns. The rules and restrictions tend to be one-size-fits-all. Some people criticize these emergency actions as overdone, as well as insensitive to local differences and to changes taking place in real time. Others think they are necessary and wise. The personal and political motives of the governors are understandable. A drop in new COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the wake of lockdown orders increases the likelihood of public approval and reelection. Inaction risks criticism and political punishment. Yet, any action they take requires making trade-offs between positive and negative consequences. Many of the negative consequences are not readily obvious. This makes it very difficult to make the correct choice.