America’s next major shooting war may not start in the Middle East, as many have predicted, or over Ukraine, as others fear. It could break out in the remote series of Pacific islands known as the Spratlys. And America’s strategic retreat under President Obama may have already increased the risk of conflict.

The Spratlys are some 750 separate, uninhabited islands in the middle of the South China Sea. Most are more like rocks than islands, but their ownership has been fiercely contested over the last decade by China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan and Malaysia. All for good reason — the Spratlys sit off sizable reserves of oil and natural gas.