Every election season, one hears an assortment of politicians, pundits and even a few academics boldly making the claim: This is the most important election ever. If it’s not ever, then it’s some variation, such as in our lifetimes, in a generation or perhaps in history.

But it’s almost never true. I’d like to make my own bold claim: 2016 will not be the most important election ever. In fact, notwithstanding the excitement and controversy it has generated, this election will be middling in terms of its historical importance.