SALISBURY, N.C. — As recently as three weeks ago, Donald Trump was leading in the RealClearPolitics average of North Carolina polls. But in the time since, the Clinton campaign has poured it on in this state that might end up as the most critical battleground in the country. Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, and a variety of other surrogates have joined Clinton herself at event after event in North Carolina.

There seems little doubt Clinton has caught up, but precisely where the race stands now is a little cloudy. A new poll from the New York Times has Clinton ahead by 7 points, 46 percent to 39 percent, in North Carolina, while an equally new poll by Monmouth shows Clinton up by a single point, 47 percent to 46 percent. The RCP average of recent polls in the state has Clinton ahead by 2 points.