Fighting his own people as they peacefully reject his election theft, Alexander Lukashenko is relying on Russia to retain power. That gives Vladimir Putin great leverage with which to make the Belarusian dictator a de facto puppet.

In turn, NATO must make clear to Lukashenko and the Belorussian government at large that they will be viewed as a military adjunct of the Russian Federation in the event of a relevant conflict on the European continent. The need for such a declaration arises alongside the possibility that Putin would use Belarus as a launch point for future military action against the Baltic states or Poland. While the likelihood of such an invasion remains low, it’s no small concern. Were Russian combined arms forces to establish a forward presence in Belarus, they could strike west and north simultaneously, pinning the Baltics between Belarus, the Russian garrison province at Kaliningrad, and Russia proper.