In trying to preserve his power, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko could provoke a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. A dangerous scenario will unfold if he refuses to hold new elections and mass protests against election fraud continue to rock his country.

Having already requested direct assistance from Moscow, a Russian military or paramilitary intervention would place NATO forces on high alert along Belarus’s western borders. If Lukashenko fails to pacify public outrage and the country grinds to a standstill, the Kremlin may calculate that a more direct intervention is necessary to prevent democratization and closer links between Belarus and the West.