Five Iranian oil tankers carrying refined fuel are approaching Venezuela. The Trump administration should seek guidance from acting Venezuelan President Juan Guaido about what to do.
There are good reasons to stop the tankers. Carrying 1.5 million barrels of fuel, they represent a lifeline to two American adversaries.
First up here is Iran, which desperately needs the tens of millions of dollars in revenue due with a successful delivery. Considering the U.S. strategy to force Iran’s return to the nuclear negotiating table, it makes sense to deny Iran any and all means of illicit revenue generation. That speaks to the second point here: This oil is on its way to an illicit recipient.
While Nicolas Maduro claims to be the legitimate president of Venezuela, he is actually that nation’s illegitimate dictator. Recognized as such by the vast majority of democratic nations, Maduro thus has no right to accept this oil on Venezuela’s behalf. It is Maduro’s leadership which has brought Venezuela to this absurd situation in the first place. Had Maduro not ruined the economy and turned his nation into a land of insane rabbit-eating diktats, child starvation, and successful professionals turned into begging prostitutes, Venezuela would not need this fuel at all. After all, Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. It should be a rich nation with abundant refining capacity. But that will only happen if Maduro leaves power or makes dramatic concessions to Guaido and his legitimate democratic representatives.
Yet, while the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard have significant assets in the Caribbean, it would be a mistake to intercept these tankers without Guaido’s assent. Doing so would suggest interference without legitimate authority, undermining Guaido’s domestic position and America’s international standing. This has added significance in light of Jordan Goudreau’s recent, and extraordinarily idiotic, private campaign to try and capture Maduro.
The far better option is for President Trump or Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to reach out to Guaido directly, seeking his guidance. Guaido has previously shown willingness to make requests of the United States in relation to Venezuelan oil issues, so there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t do so here.
What would Guaido do?
It’s possible that he would ask the U.S. to allow the fuel to be delivered in order to provide at least some benefit to Venezuelans. While Maduro’s cronies would secure the majority of the tanker loads, Venezuela’s suffering people would be able to access at least some of it. Guaido might alternatively ask the U.S. to escort the tankers to a friendly port, perhaps with cooperation from Colombia. That way Guaido would publicly assert his legitimate authority as president and take added steps to ensure that a greater proportion of the fuel load got to the people who need it most.
Or Guaido might simply ask the U.S. to seize the tankers as negotiating leverage in his dealings with Maduro.
We don’t know. But what we do know is that Juan Guaido is Venezuela’s only legitimate president and an American ally. He deserves to make the call here, and Washington should support whatever reasonable choice he makes.
