John Kasich never had a chance in Virginia, and he seems like a no-shot candidate at this point in the primary. Many conservatives have called for him to drop out, so as to help consolidate the anti-Trump vote. Kasich hasn’t. The question is whether his staying in the race might have significantly helped Trump by tipping Virginia in his favor.
If the exit polls are correct, Kasich got about 10 percent in Virginia. If Trump wins Virginia by a few points, the spoiler question will be live. But it’s not simple. First of all, many Kasich voters are Democrats who probably wouldn’t back any Republican if Kasich weren’t in the race. I spoke with Kasich voters in Virginia whose second choice was Trump. Rubio would probably get more Kasich voters than anyone else. Rubio’s net gain is calculated thus: Rubio’s haul of Kasich voters minus Trump’s haul of Kasich voters. Would that theoretical net gain exceed Trump’s margin of victory?
One way to address that is to ask, how much do Kasich voters have in common with Rubio voters?
Here’s how I’m looking at that: In what slices of the population did Kasich outperform, and are those the same slices where Rubio does well? These are the four slices where Kasich doubled or nearly doubled his performance in the rest of the state — and how Rubio did among these slices.
D.C. Suburbs: Kasich outperformed by 140 percent, Rubio outperformed by 30 percent
Moderate: Kasich outperformed by 100 percent, Rubio outperformed by 19 percent
Oppose Trump’s Muslim moratorium: Kasich outperformed by 120 percent, Rubio outperformed by 58 percent
Would like president to have political experience: Kasich outperformed by 90 percent, Rubio outperformed by 61 percent.
So all four of the voter classes where Kasich did very well were also strong Rubio classes.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
