The moment the House voted to impeach President Trump without waiting for the courts to enforce subpoenas, it was a foregone conclusion that the Senate would ultimately vote to acquit. But Republicans may have chosen the worst possible path to get there, leaving their supremacy in the Senate and the White House as vulnerable as possible.
Lisa Murkowski of Alaska all but sealed the deal on the Senate’s decision to block witnesses in the impeachment trial, sparing Republicans the spectacle of John Bolton testifying against Trump under oath. But the vote could prove a Faustian bargain for Republicans, one they’ll likely rue in the end.
The obvious obstacle created by the vote is the likelihood of an October surprise that could batter Trump in the same manner that the Comey letter kneecapped Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Bolton already wrote his book, and even if the White House tries to stonewall it, there’s no doubt the master manipulator could get the media to time the leaking of its details to maximize its damage to Trump. Although the overwhelming majority of the Democratic electorate wants to remove Trump from office, the public isn’t incredibly keyed into impeachment at the moment. Trump would be better off by ripping off the Bolton Band-Aid and spending the next 10 months letting the Ukraine fracas fade into the sunset. By blocking Bolton from talking now, he only increases the odds of the former national security adviser dropping the most damaging details in October.
But the real risk to the fate of the party as a whole is in Mitch McConnell’s Senate.
Forcing purple-state senators to vote against calling witnesses could cost a few of their seats and potentially their control of the Senate. Both Cory Gardner and Susan Collins face grueling reelections in states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and Martha McSally, who already lost one Senate race, faces a popular rival who has lapped her in fundraising. Thom Tillis is also up for reelection in North Carolina, a state that Trump and Mitt Romney carried by 12 points but which elected Dan Bishop to Congress late last year by just 2 points.
Republicans may reward their senators for voting to acquit Trump, but they overwhelmingly wanted witnesses. Three-quarters of the public overall want the Senate to allow witnesses, including half of all Republicans. Much can happen between now and November, but there’s no question that Democrats will try to rile up their base and boost turnout by campaigning on the witness vote.
If Republicans lose Gardner’s, Collins’s, Tillis’s, and McSally’s seats, the Senate could come to a total deadlock, making Vice President Mike Pence the only buffer that keeps a rogue vote from passing the McConnell agenda and the Trump legacy of remaking the federal judiciary.
