China seems set to overfly Taiwan with fighter jets. Such an operation would be designed to warn the United States against increasing its support for Taiwan. And second, to test whether President Tsai Ing-wen is willing to fire on Chinese aircraft.

The latest warning of an impending overflight came on Thursday in the Global Times newspaper. The primary mouthpiece of Beijing’s Communist Party messaging to the West, the paper warned that the “Deployment of U.S. forces to Taiwan means war.” This refers to recent U.S. military journal articles hypothesizing how best the Pentagon could help Taiwan defeat a Chinese invasion in any conflict. Apparently sensing that the Trump administration may soon send a more senior diplomat to visit the island, the editorial added, “It is not known how the U.S. and Taiwan will make further provocations, but the response of the mainland is certain. If the U.S. and Taiwan raise the level of officials for engagement, the mainland will firmly respond by sending PLA fighter jets over the island of Taiwan to claim sovereignty.”