By any objective measure, Thursday night’s debate was a trainwreck for Donald Trump. In one night, he refused to rule out a general election bid as an independent if he lost the Republican nomination, praised the Canadian socialized healthcare system, defended past sexist comments, threatened to be mean to popular Fox News host Megyn Kelly, and demonstrated a lack of understanding of important national and international issues. By any law of politics, the Trump bubble should burst after tonight.

But so far, Trump’s candidacy has defied the laws of political physics, so it’s difficult to predict the extent to which this performance will show up in the polls.