Resisting a major Russian offensive in and around the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces may conduct deliberate withdrawals rather than fighting to hold ground.
Roughly 48 hours into the new Donbas battle, Ukrainian withdrawals have been limited in nature. This suggests that Russian forces have made only incremental progress. At present, Ukraine may well believe that it can hold ground and force Russia into a stalemate that denies President Vladimir Putin even the pretense of a territorial victory. This war was always personal for Putin, but Russian war crimes have made it very personal for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will want his counterpart to pay a heavy price for his invasion. But if Russia makes more significant breakthroughs, deliberate retreats might offer Ukraine two ways to offset Russian advantages.
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The first advantage would be the mitigated risk of encirclement and annihilation.
Until now, a key Ukrainian military strength has been mobility. Maneuvering against larger formations of Russian forces, highly mobile Ukrainian units have wreaked havoc on Russian offensive lines. These tactics have also limited the vulnerability of Ukrainian forces to Russian heavy artillery and air power. But in the Donbas, Russia has a force disposition advantage it lacked in the battle for Kyiv and the north — namely, the compression of Ukrainian forces within a salient east of the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, north of Toretsk, and south of Izium.
Izium is now under Russian control, and its forces are focusing heavy air and artillery fire on Toretsk. Shaping artillery, air, and probing actions appear to be underway from further in the east. Russia’s intent is likely to conduct a pincer movement up the H20 highway to trap Ukrainian forces in the salient and then force their surrender. A successful encirclement would also bring Russia control of the M03 highway that runs from the Donbas north to Kharkiv. And while some Ukrainian special forces and intelligence units might allow their own encirclement to enable their follow-on sabotage behind Russian lines, Ukraine cannot allow Russia to capture conventional forces and their more advanced Western military equipment.
Withdrawal might serve another purpose: forcing the extension of Russian lines of communication and presenting an associated opportunity for counterattacks.
Over the last few weeks, Ukraine has received more Western drones, anti-tank and anti-air missiles, and other weapons systems. The Biden administration could have sent more numbers of more capable weapons, but others such as Britain and Poland are filling the gaps. So are average Americans. The manufacturer of the tactical Switchblade drone series system (of which the U.S. government has pledged 300-400 to Ukraine) has, for example, just donated 100 reconnaissance drones to Ukraine. These drones are designed for small unit use and are hardened against electronic warfare jamming.
All of this has bolstered Ukraine’s means of operating in what’s known as the deep battlespace (deep behind Russian lines). Considering Russia’s disastrous incompetency in command-and-control and logistics thus far, its forces accept significant risk the further they advance. In turn, if Ukrainian forces can effectively degrade Russian lines of communication, they can weaken and isolate Russian front-line forces. The reliance of Russian mechanized and armored forces on major roads, so as to mitigate their risk of breaking down or getting stuck in the spring mud, will increasingly enable this Ukrainian targeting. Contrary to those who said otherwise, and as I noted prior to the war, the spring weather factor will be important.
The key point is that not only will attacks at depth offer Ukraine the means of forcing Russian offensives to a halt, but these attacks will also make individual Russian combat units vulnerable to annihilation. Ukrainian forces will then be well placed to launch breakthrough counterattacks that either force a complete Russian retreat or the mass surrender of Russian forces.
Top line: An advantage remains with Ukraine. And for both military and political reasons, Putin cannot easily sustain another major defeat.
