President Trump has accepted an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron to attend France’s Bastille Day celebrations on July 14, the French equivalent of the 4th of July.
On paper, it’s a surprising offer from Macron. He’s spent the early days of his new presidency issuing overt and implied criticisms of Trump. And the two men disagree on many important issues. These include efforts to reduce carbon emissions, the future of the European Union, and the role of globalization.
Yet Macron needs to maintain at least some cordiality with Trump. A Bastille Day invitation serves that intent.
First, it appeals to Trump’s personality. As the 2016 Bastille Day parade attests, the annual celebration is a show of all things military. Trump has shown great enjoyment in military parades, and this display is likely to be no different.
Second, it gives Macron a chance to stroke Trump’s ego by putting him front and center at the heart of French pageantry.
I also suspect that Macron wants to draw a contrast between himself and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Unlike Trump, Merkel is deeply uncomfortable with public displays of military power and the application of that power.
France, put simply, is not. And, luckily or incidentally, Bastille Day falls just one week after this year’s G-20 summit in Germany. By showing off French jets, tanks, and soldiers, Macron may buy himself some space from Trump’s demand that European NATO members spend more on defense.
But Bastille Day needs to also be considered in the context of the conversation in which Macron extended the invite.
After all, in that same discussion Macron pledged France towards “a common response” should Assad use chemical weapons again. While “a common response” might suggest a parsed reaction: a lot of words and not much action, that’s not the case with France as it pertains to Syria. That’s because Macron has made clear his opposition to Assad’s use of chemical weapons against civilians.
Meeting Russian President Putin in late May, Macron stated that “Any use of chemical weapons would results in reprisals and an immediate riposte, at least where France is concerned.” Three weeks later, Macron further clarified his position. “If it’s found that chemical weapons are used on the ground and that we know the origin, France will then proceed to strikes to destroy stocks of chemical weapons.”
Let’s be clear, there is a genuine alignment between France and the U.S. here.
It’s also a new alignment.
France was especially disgusted when the Obama administration called off its strikes against Assad in August 2013. French jets were ready to launch in support of those operations. Additionally, France felt that the Obama administration was strategically defective on the broader struggle in Syria. Macron is hopeful that he can form a consensus with Trump that makes progress towards ending the Syrian civil war. This is the reality (don’t expect to read about it in many other media outlets, however).
Still, by offering Trump support against Assad chemical campaign, Macron also accomplishes something else. He gives Trump a rare diplomatic victory. Trump is isolated and unpopular on the world stage. But as I’ve noted, the possibility of a near-term chemical weapons attack in Syria is significant. These are not peripheral issues. Macron knows Trump values loyalty. And here, he is offering a substantial pledge towards it.
Ultimately, it’s true that the two presidents have very real differences on a whole range of issues. But politics, whether abroad or at home, is in the end the art of the possible. And when it comes to Trump, Macron has clearly decided that a positive partnership is preferable to discord.
